After a Westminster election, The British Election Study (BES) can be invaluable in getting behind the punditry and perceived wisdoms to more fact-based lessons and analysis that political parties can use.
In 2017, the BES found there was no “youthquake” in favour of Jeremy Corbyn and, most recently, showed the beginnings of “realignment” in the 2019 election, now further evidenced in the Hartlepool and Chesham & Amersham by-elections.
It is welcome to see the beginnings of this type of study here with the Scottish Election Survey (SES) and I would urge anyone to read the blogs and tweets so far but there was one thing in particular that caught my eye.
We know that for Scottish Labour to hope to form part of a government in future, we must not only hold on to our existing, pro-Union, support but take at least a chunk of the SNP vote with us as well. Some have argued this requires us to embrace constitutional change but is that true? It has never made sense to be on the face of it anyway. Afterall, why would SNP voters who are committed to independence, vote for a party that was, at best, reluctant and unreliable supporters of the cause?
But what if there were a specific part of the SNP coalition we could target successfully without supporting another divisive referendum. Alongside independence, the SES found that for SNP voters key phrases were “a focus on Scotland” and “standing up for Scotland”. This was very similar to those who voted for Welsh Labour (substitute “Scotland” for “Wales” obviously), showing a party opposed to radical constitutional change could win those voters with the right message.
To appeal to this part of the SNP coalition, Scottish Labour would not have to back a referendum or independence but perhaps look to a more traditional metric, often cited as critical in US polling. Is a party or candidate “on my side”.
To be “on my side” isn’t about manifestos, policy delivery or even outcomes. It is more nebulous; you just know it when you see it. I think we saw the beginning of that message during the 2021 campaign. “What Unites us, not what divides us” and “recovery, not old arguments”.
The SES also indicates that the “yes” supporters are slightly softer on constitutional change. If that part of the SNP coalition start looking for another home in the next few years for whatever reason, Scottish Labour must already be there, “on their side” and willing to “focus on Scotland.”
To achieve that, we don’t just need a raft of policies, those policies must embody something more, a better Scotland than what we have today and the prospect of an even better Scotland for future generations. To use the SNP parlance, we have to demonstrate that we are stronger for Scotland. Our policies must show that we understand, really understand, not just what voters complain about but what they want to see.
We have to show them we support their aspirations for their careers, their family, their lifestyle, their communities, their services and, yes, for Scotland as a whole. We have to be on Scotland’s side.